Satrix style tracker Q3

What drove performance in Q3 2017?

| 8 November 2017

An in-depth look at factor performance

In the charts on the following page we look in-depth at the drivers of the last quarter’s performance for the various styles: Momentum (Price Momentum and Earnings Momentum),  Value (Price to Book and Dividend Yield) and Quality (Return on Equity and Debt to Equity).

Momentum

Momentum’s stellar performance during Q3 was a sign of alignment with global outcomes, as Price Momentum’s strong recovery in Q3 2017 has seen the factor redeem itself somewhat and recoup much of the losses it experienced last year. Interestingly, Price Momentum gains have been driven by the short side with the long basket performing broadly in lines with the market.
Earnings revisions have also started showing strong improvement during the quarter after a tepid start to the year. Still, corporate earnings estimates are being weighed down by domestic economic and policy uncertainty.

Momentum factors

Value

Price to Book has started to cool down after a fantastic 2016 and strong first half of 2017. Cyclical upswings and low levels of economic and policy uncertainty are not typically the optimal environment for this factor.

Dividend yield similarly did well in 2016, along with Q2 in 2017. However, this factor has struggled in Q3 with a sluggish SA economy, and investors redirecting their attention away from counters that offer higher margins of safety (from a valuation perspective) toward more cyclical or growth orientated shares.

Value factors

Quality

The Return on Equity factor has experienced some inconsistency in performance over the prior quarters. After being the best factor in Q1, it fell back into its ‘2016-like’ performance during Q2, which was followed up by a positive performance over the subsequent third quarter. We maintain that the factor still has some overhang from a moderately crowded position in 2015, based on valuation measures. After some further normalisation, the factor’s long-term premium should become more accessible.

Debt to Equity continues to deliver positively year-to-date after an improved 2016, where this factor showed sporadic bursts corresponding to periods of extreme market stress, reminding us of its defensive attributes.

Quality factors

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Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd, a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, and that the value of investments / units / unit trusts may go down as well as up. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available from the Manager on request. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. The Manager does not provide any guarantee either with respect to the capital or the return of a portfolio. The Manager has the right to close the portfolio to new investors in order to manage it more efficiently in accordance with its mandate. The maximum fund charges for the Satrix Balanced Index Fund include (including VAT): An initial advice fee of 0%; annual advice fee of 1.14% and annual manager fee of 0.39%. The latest TER is 0.76%. The performance ranking of the Satrix Balanced Index Fund (3rd in its Asisa category) is according to Morningstar. The return of the fund since inception to end 2017 was 9.69%. The highest and lowest annual returns since inception were 19.04% and 4.03% respectively.

 

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